Everton – QLD 2020

LNP 4.9%

Incumbent MP
Tim Mander, since 2012.

Geography
Northern fringe of Brisbane. The seat straddles the border between the City of Brisbane and Moreton Bay Regional Council. The seat covers the suburbs of Oxford Park, Everton Hills, Albany Hill and parts of Mitchelton, Bunya, Brendale and Arana Hills.

History
Everton has existed since the 1972 election. The ALP held the seat continuously from 1977 to 2012.

Gerry Jones won the seat for the ALP at the  1972 election. He lost the seat in a massive landslide to Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s National-Liberal government in 1974. Jones went on to serve in the Senate from 1980 to 1996.

In 1974 the seat was won by the Liberal Party’s Brian Lindsay. He served for one term before losing in 1977 to the Labor Party’s Glen Milliner.

Milliner held the seat from 1977 to 1992. Milliner became a minister in the Goss Labor government in 1989. In 1992 he moved to the new seat of Ferny Grove, and was succeeded by Rod Selford in Everton.

Selford had been first elected in the seat of Stafford in 1989 before moving to Everton in 1992. Welford joined the ministry when Peter Beattie became Premier in 1998. He served as a minister for eleven years, until he retired in 2009.

Welford was succeeded in 2009 by Murray Watt, who had previously served as Chief of Staff to Anna Bligh.

In 2012, Watt was defeated by LNP candidate Tim Mander. Mander was re-elected in 2015 and 2017. Mander has served as deputy leader of the opposition since shortly after the 2017 election.

Candidates

Assessment
Everton is a marginal seat, but has leaned towards the LNP since Mander first won in 2012.

2017 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tim Mander Liberal National 16,756 51.8 +2.2
David Greene Labor 11,616 35.9 -4.2
Bridget Clinch Greens 3,997 12.3 +2.4
Informal 1,273 3.8

2017 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tim Mander Liberal National 17,784 54.9 +2.9
David Greene Labor 14,585 45.1 -2.9

Booth breakdown

Booths in Everton have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.

The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the north (57.9%) and the centre (50.6%), while Labor won 54.7% in the south.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.2% in the north to 18.1% in the south.

Voter group GRN prim LNP 2PP Total votes % of votes
North 10.2 57.9 10,310 31.9
Central 14.5 50.6 5,131 15.9
South 18.1 45.3 4,222 13.0
Pre-poll 10.0 57.8 5,804 17.9
Other votes 12.4 57.1 6,902 21.3

Election results in Everton at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.


Become a Patron!

7 COMMENTS

  1. Dont think Tim Mander is too worried about losing this seat.
    1. because he’s a very popular local member and
    2. because ALP only just selected their candidate only very recently

  2. @ Keiran I tend to agree with you. Mander should have a swing towards him.

    Prediction (August 2020): LNP Retain

  3. I don’t see Tim Mander losing this seat. The Labor member seems nice, seems to be working hard and is door knocking regularly across the electorate although it won’t be enough. It didn’t help she was preselected so close to the election (I heard there was the usual fighting between left and right factions).

    I recall someone on the Pine River page talking about the distinct divide in voting intentions found in that seat. I note that there seems to be this divide here with the bunya forest serving as the dividing line – heavy LNP voting above and heavy ALP voting below.
    Overall I think areas below the forest (Everton Park, Gaythorne, etc) will swing ALP and areas above the forest (Albany Creek, Eatins Hill) will swing LNP, so Mander will keep a similar margin.

  4. ”Burleigh is a marginal seat, but has leaned towards the LNP since Mander first won in 2012.”

    Not sure why nobody else has noticed this mistake on this page

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here